According to a recent Redfin analysis of MLS pending-sales data, home-purchase agreements are being canceled at a record rate for this time of year.
The Data Behind the Trend In January 2026, nearly 40,000 home-sale agreements were canceled nationwide. This equals 13.7% of homes that went under contract that month. This figure is up from 13.1% the previous year and represents the highest January share recorded since 2017.
Why Are Buyers Backing Out? There are two main factors driving this shift:
- Buyer Negotiating Power: Sales are falling through primarily because it is a buyer’s market. There are hundreds of thousands more sellers than buyers in the U.S. right now. This dynamic gives buyers the power to negotiate or back out during the inspection period if they find a better home or encounter a major inspection issue.
- Financial Uncertainty: Buyers are also backing out due to financial concerns. While housing costs have come down from their peak, they remain near historic highs. Many would-be buyers are getting anxious about the economy, geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and potential layoffs, causing them to second-guess making such a massive financial commitment.
Local Market Extremes The national average paints a broad picture, but real estate is always local:
- Highest Cancellations: San Antonio had the highest cancellation rate among major U.S. metros at 21.2%. In San Antonio, sellers currently outnumber buyers two to one, giving buyers plenty of choices to fall back on. Atlanta followed with an 18.5% cancellation rate.
- Lowest Cancellations: On the other end of the spectrum, San Francisco experienced the lowest cancellation share at just 3.5%.
Navigating this market takes a steady hand. Whether you are looking in Magnolia, Tomball, or the surrounding areas, contact me for a trustworthy market update tailored to your specific goals.
Sal Trapani, Mortgage Banker & Owner, MJ Mortgage LLC, 281-608-2846 cell, sal@mjmortgagellc.com, www.mjmortgagellc.com, Magnolia, TX 77354, NMLS 1055510 / NMLS 2381195