Happy New Year! As we turn the page on 2025, many Texans are setting big goals for the year ahead—and for many, that includes buying a new home.
But after the rollercoaster of the last few years, it’s natural to have questions. Will rates drop? Will prices crash? Is 2026 finally the right time to buy?
At MJ Mortgage LLC, I believe in making decisions based on data, not fear. I’ve analyzed the latest economic forecasts from leading sources like Fannie Mae, the National Association of Realtors (NAR), and Redfin to bring you a clear, no-nonsense outlook for the Texas real estate market in 2026.
Here are the three key trends that will define the year ahead.
Prediction 1: Mortgage Rates Will Offer Stability
The most common question we get is about interest rates. While no one has a crystal ball, the leading economic indicators point to a year of stability, not volatility.
According to Fannie Mae’s economic forecast, mortgage rates are expected to moderate slightly throughout 2026 but remain in a stable range.
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What this means for you: The days of 3% rates are behind us, but so is the fear of sudden, drastic spikes. This stability is good news for buyers. It allows you to calculate your monthly budget with confidence and plan your purchase without panic.
Prediction 2: More Homes to Choose From (Rising Inventory)
Throughout late 2025, we began to see a shift. Homes started sitting on the market a little longer, and inventory levels began to creep back toward a balanced market.
Redfin reports suggest that the “lock-in effect”—which kept many potential sellers put because they didn’t want to give up their low mortgage rates—is beginning to ease. As life events (jobs, family changes) force people to move, more inventory will enter the market in 2026.
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What this means for you: More choices and less pressure. In 2026, buyers will likely have the opportunity to view multiple properties and make thoughtful decisions, rather than being forced into same-day bidding wars.
Prediction 3: Home Prices Will See Moderate Growth
Is a crash coming? The data says no. Texas’s strong economy and growing population continue to drive demand for housing.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) predicts that home prices will continue to appreciate in 2026, but at a much more sustainable pace than the frantic jumps of recent years.
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What this means for you: Waiting for prices to plummet is a risky strategy. Real estate remains a powerful tool for building long-term wealth. Buying in 2026 means entering a stable market that is forecasted to see steady, manageable growth over time.
The Bottom Line: 2026 is the Year of Opportunity
If 2025 was the year the market stabilized, 2026 is the year for prepared buyers to take action.
The market conditions—stable rates, increased inventory, and realistic pricing—are aligning to create a window of opportunity.
Don’t Wait for the “Perfect” Time. There is no such thing as a perfect market. The right time to buy is when you are financially ready.
If your New Year’s resolution is to become a homeowner, at MJ Mortgage LLC, I’m here to help you map out a plan. I offer local expertise, fast in-house processing, and honest advice to help you navigate the Magnolia and greater Texas market.
Let’s make 2026 your best year yet.
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Reliable Sources for This Forecast:
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Fannie Mae: Economic and Housing Research Group
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National Association of Realtors (NAR): Research & Statistics Division
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Redfin: Real Estate Market Research & Housing Data